My (early graduate) work on nuclear latency got published in the Florida Political Chronicle. The paper discusses the foundation of the nuclear latency, which describes the situation in which a state has the technical capability to produce nuclear weapons, but has not acquired them. Specifically, it answers why some countries develop nuclear capability and become latent and others do not. Interestingly, states with the capability to produce nuclear weapons often stop at this stage of nuclear development. That provides a puzzle that is worthy scholarly analysis because it can lead to new insights about nonproliferation and opens-up the horizons to understand proliferation. The preceding analysis that must be explored is the path to nuclear latent capability. Given that improved manufacturing technology and construction of enrichment, or reprocessing facilities transforms states into near-nuclear states, why do states manage to become so advanced in their nuclear capabilities? This work argues that national power, military expenditures and military personnel are the three key variables that explain why some countries develop a nuclear latency capability and others do not. Understanding why some are further along in the stages of developing a nuclear weapon, provides implications for non-proliferation and counter-proliferation policy. This quantitative study uses as statistical method a cross-sectional time series regression model of country data observed annually.
Horschig, Doreen. 2018. “Potential Nuclear Proliferators: Determinants of Nuclear Capability Among Latent Countries.” Florida Political Chronicle 26(1): 83-93.